FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City

Modeling land use and cover (LULC) change is important for understanding its spatiotemporal trends plays a crucial role in planning natural resources management. To this end, study assessed the characteristics of LULC changes Urumqi city between 1980 2020. In addition, future was successfully projected 2030 2050 under different scenarios based on FLUS model. This model validated using actual simulated data The kappa coefficient figure merit simulation results 2020 were 0.87 0.114, respectively, indicating that accuracy satisfactory. demonstrated grassland major type, with area accounting more than 50% area. From to 2020, urban greatly expanded, while decreased significantly. Urban increased from 353.51 km2 884.27 km2, 7903.4 7414.92 significant transitions mainly occurred grasslands, cultivated lands lands. Grassland converted into land, resulting rapid expansion over last 40 years. 1990 2000, an 341.08 km2. Finally, showed expected increase all three scenarios, forest are effectively protected Cultivated Land Protection Scenario (CPS) Ecological (EPS) compared Baseline (BLS). 2035 City arid semi-arid regions northwest China model, which has not been investigated previous studies.